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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1561

Published Date and Time: 2024-07-08 19:32:04

Mesoscale Discussion 1561
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1561
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0629 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

   Areas affected...TS Beryl

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 514...515...

   Valid 082329Z - 090130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 514, 515 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado threat will be most concentrated from northern
   Louisiana into central Arkansas this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Center of TS Beryl is lifting northeast across
   northeast TX early this evening. Latest radar data suggests the
   remnant circulation is just south of Longview. As such, strongest
   low-level shear is now focusing across the ArkLaTex, especially into
   southern AR where values continue to increase. Latest VWP data from
   SHV depicts weakening 0-3km SRH values, while 0-3km values are
   showing a marked increase as far northeast as LZK (300 m2/s2). While
   a few supercells linger at lower latitudes over central LA, the
   strongest longer-lived supercells are now concentrated from
   northwest LA into southwest AR. Over the next several hours the
   primary corridor of concern will orient itself from north of SHV
   toward LIT.

   ..Darrow.. 07/08/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33209421 34399308 33689188 32759337 33209421 

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