Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1557

   Mesoscale Discussion 1557
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of western New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 091915Z - 092115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to marginally severe wind gusts are possible along
   and near the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. A watch is not
   expected given the limited spatial extent of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...A organized linear segment is ongoing near Toronto
   driven by ascent from a shortwave trough. While the airmass near the
   Lake Ontario shore is slightly cooler than surrounding areas, the
   organization of the linear segment will likely allow it to propagate
   some distance along the shoreline with aid from the lake breeze
   boundary. The spatial extent of the threat is not expected to reach
   farther inland than a county or two. Strong to marginally severe
   wind gusts, particularly along the more exposed lake shore, are
   possible.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/09/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42877729 42907891 42878019 43677928 43707631 43527607
               43167630 42877729 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH