Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1550

   Mesoscale Discussion 1550
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0725 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska into western Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...

   Valid 090025Z - 090230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A transition from semi-discrete supercells to a linear
   storm mode has occurred and will promote an increase in severe winds
   downstream into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, KGID and KOAX imagery has shown a
   convective mode transition from predominately
   semi-discrete/clustered supercells to a linear band. Additionally,
   convective development continues to develop west/southwestward along
   a frontal boundary, and will likely merge with the developing band
   within the next hour or so. This activity will continue to propagate
   into the best regional thermodynamic environment, which features
   MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and low-level lapse rates are near 7.5 C/km.
   This thermodynamic will favor further updraft development and cold
   pool development, especially considering adequate deep-layer bulk
   shear in place across the warm sector (the KOAX VWP continues to
   sample 0-6 km bulk shear values of around 30 knots). Consequently,
   some uptick in severe wind potential appears probable in the next
   couple of hours across eastern NE and possibly into western IA. The
   wind threat may be modulated to some degree by weak low-level winds
   sampled by the KOAX VWP, which may favor outflow-dominant
   convection. However, embedded swaths of severe winds behind the
   outflow will still be possible.

   ..Moore.. 07/09/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   40679823 41019828 41559760 41739717 41909582 41689541
               41309528 40989531 40729542 40499564 40419596 40279659
               40679823 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN