Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1539

   Mesoscale Discussion 1539
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1013 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

   Areas affected...West-central Minnesota and northeast South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469...470...

   Valid 080313Z - 080445Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469, 470
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A corridor of more focused severe wind potential is
   emerging across west-central Minnesota. Wind speeds between 60-80
   mph appear possible within the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest reflectivity imagery from KABR shows the early
   stages of a bowing segment and rear-inflow jet within a small MCS
   developing across far northeast SD and west-central MN. Although the
   easterly track of the MCS will mostly take it north of a surface
   warm front draped to the south, echo top data and GOES IR imagery
   shows deep convective development on the southern flank of the line,
   hinting at the potential for more southeastward propagation in the
   next couple of hours along the boundary. Regardless, moist
   conditions downstream continue to support 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
   (even on the cool side of the warm front), and effective bulk shear
   vectors remain very favorably aligned with the MCS for further
   organization/intensification over the short-term. Based on these
   radar observations and the downstream environment, wind speeds
   within the MCS may be as high as 60-80 mph over the next 1-2 hours
   across west-central MN.

   ..Moore.. 07/08/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45789681 45959508 45909495 45759474 45419463 45249460
               44959462 44809474 44679506 44939670 45109694 45379688
               45629686 45789681 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN