Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1538

   Mesoscale Discussion 1538
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0854 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota into central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469...

   Valid 080154Z - 080400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms will likely spread east
   into central Minnesota over the next few hours. The downstream
   environment should support a continued severe wind threat.
   Downstream watch issuance probably be needed to address this
   concern.

   DISCUSSION...An elevated thunderstorm cluster migrating southeast
   across the Aberdeen, SD region has begun producing severe winds at
   the surface between 60-70 mph. This, coupled with a recent uptick in
   lightning counts and cooling cloud-top temperatures, strongly
   suggests that the cluster is utilizing the higher buoyancy in place
   across the region. Based on current storm tracks and latest
   mesoanalyses, this storm will continue to push into a regional
   buoyancy maximum, so further intensification appears probable over
   the next hour or so. Additionally, surface observations show a warm
   frontal zone draped from far northeast SD into central MN that is
   well aligned with the deep-layer bulk shear vector. This may act as
   a foci for storm propagation through the next few hours where a
   greater chance for severe wind could emerge. 

   New storm development south of the ongoing cluster also appears
   possible over the next 1-2 hours as an outflow boundary from the
   cluster collides with a meandering boundary to the south. Any storms
   developing within this zone will likely also pose a threat for
   severe hail and eventually severe wind if/when upscale clustering
   occurs. Regardless, downstream watch issuance into central MN
   appears probable in the coming hours as storms continue to spread
   east.

   ..Moore.. 07/08/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44049544 44259651 44549674 44919683 45209681 45549660
               45709646 45869611 45729433 45509398 45139385 44829389
               44489409 44249436 44079486 44049544 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN