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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1538

2024-07-05 08:58:03

Mesoscale Discussion 1538
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1538
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0756 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

   Areas affected...eastern Kentucky...southern Ohio...western West
   Virginia...northeastern Tennessee and far western Virginia.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 051256Z - 051530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The atmosphere is destabilizing this morning across the
   Tennessee/Ohio Valley which may support an increased severe weather

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms has continued through much of the
   overnight period with 30 to 40 knot convective wind gusts and
   sporadic wind damage. The airmass ahead of these storms is very
   moist with dewpoints in the mid 70s and a mean mixing ratio of 17.8
   g/kg on the 12Z BNA RAOB. In addition, the wind profile is more
   favorable than anticipated with 40 knots of effective shear.
   Inhibition will be eroded by mid to late morning as temperatures
   warm into the mid to upper 80s ahead of this line of storms.
   Modifying the 12Z BNA RAOB for mid 80F temperatures suggests
   2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE with a mostly uncapped surface parcel.
   Therefore, expect the storms in this line to intensify by mid to
   late morning with an increasing damaging wind threat. 

   The 12Z ILN RAOB showed significant drying from 00Z, indicating the
   prohibitive environment north of the front which is currently across
   southern Ohio. Therefore, expect the severe weather threat to be
   confined to areas south of this boundary.

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 07/05/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36588554 37548538 38798486 39188258 39308168 38278133
               37138156 36188269 35638420 35558521 35648546 36588554 

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