Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1537

   Mesoscale Discussion 1537
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

   Areas affected...Middle Atlantic and southern New England

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481...

   Valid 012156Z - 020000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat continues with convection across the
   Middle Atlantic into southern New England early this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Weak disturbance that tracked along the OH River has
   advanced into eastern PA, very near the NJ border. Organized
   convection continues just ahead of this feature, and new scattered
   robust updrafts are maturing across the southern Delmarva. Modest
   southwesterly flow favors this activity propagating off the Middle
   Atlantic Coast later this evening. Until then, a narrow corridor of
   strong instability extends across the southern Delmarva toward
   western Long Island, with moderate buoyancy into southern New
   England where surface temperatures have warmed into the upper
   80s/lower 90s. This zone of instability will prove favorable robust
   updrafts capable of generating damaging winds.

   ..Darrow.. 07/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   42517144 41907108 40527340 37827558 37437798 38197828
               39407619 41227492 42517144 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH