Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1534

   Mesoscale Discussion 1534
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0259 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of western and central South
   Dakota...parts of far northern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 071959Z - 072200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and severe winds are possible as storms develop
   by late afternoon/early evening. A watch will likely be needed this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave trough
   moving into eastern Wyoming. Lift associated with this feature is
   has promoted storm initiation near Chadron, NE, along the stationary
   boundary. Additional cumulus development has also been noted on
   visible satellite in central South Dakota. As surface heating
   continues to erode MLCIN, additional storm development is probable.
   Timing of development is not certain. Given current trends, greater
   coverage is expected by late afternoon and certainly early evening
   as the low-level jet increases. Mid-level lapse rates from the 18Z
   observed UNR sounding were 8.3 C/km decreasing to 6.7 C/km in ABR.
   With around 40-45 kt of effective shear, supercell structures
   capable of large hail (up to 2.5 in.) and severe winds will be
   possible. Some upscale growth could occur as the low-level jet
   increases during the evening. This could lead to a greater severe
   wind threat as convection moves east along the surface boundary.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42770087 42550258 42650316 42830328 43200338 43660372
               44100389 44380365 44460283 44960012 44999941 44789854
               44069855 43259981 42770087 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN