Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1531

   Mesoscale Discussion 1531
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0929 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...far southeast North
   Dakota...west-central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071429Z - 071630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible as convection moves
   eastward over the next 1-3 hours. A watch is not currently expected,
   but trends will be monitored into the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms is moving eastward on the
   cool side of a stationary boundary. Weak warm advection is likely
   supporting this activity. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and
   modest elevated buoyancy, isolated large hail is possible with the
   strongest storm cores. 850 mb winds are expected to weaken slightly
   over the next couple of hours. At least in the short term, it is not
   likely for enough of a cold pool to develop to maintain organization
   or for the boundary to lift northward and storms to become surface
   based. Destabilization is occurring farther east and the boundary
   orientation could allow this cluster to interact with it by mid
   afternoon. Observational trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   44939919 45130001 45760049 46210002 46379906 46269728
               46109606 45739598 45239613 44959659 44879712 44779809
               44939919 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN