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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1531

2024-07-03 21:56:05

Mesoscale Discussion 1531
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1531
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0855 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

   Areas affected...northwest/north-central KS and south-central NE

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502...504...

   Valid 040155Z - 040330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502, 504

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts of 50-70 mph along with
   marginal hail from 0.75-1.25 inches in diameter will remain possible
   over the next couple hours across parts of northwest to
   north-central Kansas and  south-central Nebraska. An additional
   severe thunderstorm watch farther east appears unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A recent uptick in the trailing portion of a
   predominately non-severe QLCS occurred in far southwest NE, yielding
   a measured severe gust of 55 kts at the McCook ASOS. This portion of
   the line appears likely to merge with a more north/south-oriented
   cluster over northwest KS which has produced a measured strong gust
   of 46 kts at the Colby AWOS. The thermodynamic environment
   immediately downstream is still favorable for occasional
   intensification during the next hour or so. But towards 04-05Z, the
   combination of increasing MLCIN and diminishing buoyancy with
   eastern extent suggests the severe wind threat should wane east of
   north-central KS.

   ..Grams.. 07/04/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40360005 40449972 40649905 41269835 41479780 41249715
               40559728 39469786 39159831 38829909 38820002 38870087
               39570068 40360005 

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