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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1524

2024-07-03 17:34:05

Mesoscale Discussion 1524
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1524
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0432 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

   Areas of NE...far northeast CO...far southeast SD

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501...

   Valid 032132Z - 032300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501

   SUMMARY...A mixed severe hail/wind threat may transition to a
   predominant strong to severe wind threat as storms further congeal
   from far northeast Colorado into north-central Nebraska. A
   downstream watch issuance may be needed as storms approach the east
   edge of WW 501.

   DISCUSSION...Initial supercells that produced large hail have
   largely congealed, especially with southwest extent across parts of
   north-central to southwest NE. The northern portion of this
   activity, embedded within slightly stronger mid-level flow will
   probably exit WW 501 first across parts of northeast NE into far
   southeast SD. While this activity will progressively move away from
   the peak buoyancy plume centered on the CO/KS border area, presence
   of a quasi-stationary front may aid in sustaining strong to isolated
   severe storms.

   Farther southwest, severe wind gust potential may increase as
   clusters further consolidate near the CO/KS/NE border area. These
   will probably merge with an agitated cu field over southwest NE and
   yield an increasing wind threat later into south-central NE.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 07/03/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42859971 43059857 42959699 42649647 42289640 40979848
               40529969 40410212 40670295 41350246 42859971 

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