Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1513

   Mesoscale Discussion 1513
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0247 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 051947Z - 052145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected by 22z. Isolated
   large hail and strong wind gusts will be the main hazards with these
   storms through evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
   needed in the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies have allowed for strong heating in
   the upper 80 to low 90s across western/central ND. Boundary layer
   moisture remains modest across the region, though a plume of 60s
   dewpoints has spread north and west across portions of the
   discussion area ahead of a surface cold front over the Canadian
   Prairies into northeast MT. Steepening midlevel lapse rates are
   supporting moderate destabilization, while increasing mid/upper
   southwesterly flow is resulting in 30-40 kt effective shear. Cumulus
   development is noted across western ND and thunderstorm initiation
   is expected in the next couple of hours. Supercell wind profiles are
   present across the region, and isolated large hail and strong wind
   gusts are expected with this activity. Trends are being monitored
   and a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next
   couple hours.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/05/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   49199934 48319995 47460113 47300305 47680331 48300299
               49250214 49199934 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN