Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1503

   Mesoscale Discussion 1503
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0547 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Areas affected...The Mid-Atlantic region

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457...459...

   Valid 042247Z - 050045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457, 459
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds continues across the
   greater Mid-Atlantic region. More focused corridors of higher wind
   risk may emerge across southeastern Pennsylvania into northern
   Maryland and across parts of central Virginia over the next couple
   of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics continue to show multiple
   clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms with embedded swaths of
   stronger winds. Most wind reports so far have been in the 35-55 mph
   range, but occasional severe gusts and multiple reports of wind
   damage have been noted over the past hour. Regional VWPs continue to
   sample relatively weak deep-layer wind shear that will maintain
   outflow-dominant mutli-cell and clustered storm modes through late
   evening. However, surface temperatures remain fairly hot (upper 90s
   to low 100s) with steep low-level lapse rates noted across northern
   MD into southeastern PA, and across parts of central VA where
   convective overturning has yet to occur. 

   For the next few hours, the expectation is for a continuation of
   poorly-organized multi-cell clusters with sporadic swaths of
   damaging/severe winds across much of the region. The wind risk will
   most likely be focused across central/southern VA where conditions
   remain very hot and across east/southeast PA where multiple clusters
   may converge and promote an uptick in thunderstorm coverage later
   this evening.

   ..Moore.. 07/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37277934 38287852 39237802 39787805 40197820 40567816
               40907774 41077678 41027598 40857542 40617497 40447482
               40117480 37377708 37047742 36837785 36837820 36847861
               36937893 37067920 37277934 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN