Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1474

   Mesoscale Discussion 1474
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0442 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

   Areas affected...Southeast Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447...

   Valid 032142Z - 032345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to develop a
   cohesive cold pool, which will likely maintain the threat for
   damaging/severe winds over the next 1-2 hours as it approaches the
   greater Detroit area.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, recent regional reflectivity and
   velocity data from Lower MI/northern IN depicts the gradual
   emergence of a more cohesive cold pool within an otherwise broken
   band of thunderstorms. Concurrently, GOES IR imagery has shown
   periodic bursts of intense updrafts and a gradual cooling trend in
   cloud-top temperatures, further suggesting that some
   organization/consolidation is occurring. Latest RAP mesoanalyses
   continue to show an MLCAPE gradient draped eastward across the
   greater Detroit area ahead of the convective band. Although
   deep-layer shear remains somewhat meager, propagation along this
   boundary appears likely over the next few hours. Based on latest
   storm track estimates, this band will begin to impact the greater
   Detroit area between the next 1-2 hours and will likely pose a
   threat for damaging/severe winds (most likely between 50-65 mph).

   ..Moore.. 07/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   41578527 41888491 42168469 42628470 42718455 42768274
               42638258 42348276 42168288 41978305 41788317 41628336
               41578527 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH