Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1472

   Mesoscale Discussion 1472
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

   Areas affected...Southern New York into eastern Pennsylvania and
   portions of New Jersey

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448...

   Valid 032034Z - 032230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat for WW 448 continues as storms
   move east-southeast across the watch area.

   DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorm activity has continued to increase
   in coverage amidst a hot and humid boundary layer. While the
   multicellular convection is generally disorganized, steep lapse
   rates, modest precipitable water content, and high LCL heights all
   support a damaging wind threat with the strongest thunderstorm
   downdrafts. An additional round of thunderstorms moving across Lake
   Ontario could potentially impact northern portions of the watch
   area, but the general expectation is for convective activity to
   diminish into the evening with the removal of solar heating.

   ..Halbert.. 07/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   41907822 42287805 42457727 42467583 42377472 41957440
               41387443 40267467 39677536 39427620 39627720 40177802
               40837817 41457821 41907822 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH