US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1472

2024-06-29 12:04:03

   Mesoscale Discussion 1472
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1103 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of OH...northern WV...and western PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 291603Z - 291800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
   intensity over the next few hours. Damaging gusts will be the main
   hazard with this activity, though a tornado or two also may occur.
   Timing of watch issuance is uncertain, but area is being monitored
   for watch issuance within the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has been slowly increasing along
   the leading edge of an area showers left over from overnight/early
   morning convection moving into northern/central OH. Rich
   boundary-layer moisture is in place, with surface dewpoints in the
   upper 60s to low 70s F noted in morning observations. Widespread
   cloudiness is limiting heating, and temperatures are generally in
   the upper 70s to near 80F. With time, pockets of stronger
   destabilization are expected into afternoon, with downstream
   destabilization expected into parts of northern VA/western PA by
   early to mid-afternoon. However, cloud cover and poor lapse rates
   may limit more widespread stronger instability. Nevertheless,
   vertical shear will be sufficient for transient supercells and bands
   of bowing segments. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with
   convection through the afternoon and into early evening. While
   low-level shear will remain somewhat weak, vertically veering
   profiles will result in somewhat enlarge and curved low-level
   hodographs suitable for a tornado or two in addition to damaging
   gust potential. 

   Additional convection is possible into the evening hours as the
   synoptic cold front (currently over northern IL) shifts
   east/southeast across the area. As a result, multiple bands/rounds
   of strong/severe storms are possible. Timing of watch issuance is a
   bit uncertain, but the trends will continue to be monitored for
   possible watch issuance within the next couple of hours.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/29/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41278264 41878081 41928056 41967926 41517853 40617868
               39917902 39337972 38968070 38818244 38858341 39028427
               39228444 39518458 39848475 40438406 41108291 41278264 

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