Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1454

   Mesoscale Discussion 1454
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0632 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...Northwest Tennessee into the lower Ohio Valley

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438...

   Valid 022332Z - 030130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some damaging wind threat will likely persist across
   northwest Tennessee and into the lower Ohio River Valley through
   mid-evening, but the overall coverage and intensity of the wind
   threat should wane through the coming hours. Downstream watch
   issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KPAH and KHPX shows an
   outflow boundary preceding deeper convection emanating out of middle
   TN that has a history of sporadic wind damage. Although recent wind
   reports have mostly been in the 25-30 mph range, velocity imagery
   continues to show pockets of stronger winds within the lowest 1-3 km
   that hint that isolated swaths of damaging winds remain possible in
   the near term with the primary cluster. Additionally, new convective
   development is noted on the northern fringe of the leading outflow
   boundary with additional new development possible given a weakly
   capped environment with around 4000 J/kg MLCAPE immediately
   downstream. With low-level lapse rates between 7 to 8 C/km, some
   downburst wind threat will likely persist for the next couple of
   hours. 

   However, the approaching onset of nocturnal cooling will begin to
   diminish low-level lapse rates and gradually increase inhibition.
   This should begin to steadily modulate overall convective
   intensities and diminish the potential for damaging winds,
   especially after 02 UTC. Consequently, downstream watch issuance is
   currently not expected.

   ..Moore.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36838682 36768712 36518743 36348768 36068795 35958809
               35928837 36048879 36248920 36488947 36868953 37268938
               37478906 37688864 37758820 37748726 37588685 37398662
               37168651 36978653 36838682 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN