Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1453

   Mesoscale Discussion 1453
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0607 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...Northern South Dakota...Southern and Western North
   Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 022307Z - 030130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop over parts of
   northern South Dakota and southern North Dakota over the next few
   hours. A weather watch extension in area may be needed across parts
   of northern South Dakota, or a new watch could need to be
   considered.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis show an axis of low-level
   moisture extending from central South Dakota into central and
   western North Dakota, where dewpoints are mostly in the lower to mid
   60s F. Along that corridor, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000
   J/kg range. Thunderstorms have recently intensified in northwestern
   South Dakota just to the west of the instability axis, within the
   far eastern part of WW 441. Short-term model forecasts suggest that
   this activity will remain intact and move northeastward across parts
   of north-central South Dakota over the next couple of hours.
   Additional storms may also develop in parts of southern and western
   North Dakota. The storms that intensify in proximity of the
   instability axis could produce severe wind gusts and isolated large
   hail.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   46209935 46850000 47600152 47610234 47390268 47100258
               46740228 46180206 45540173 45260128 45150047 45249926
               45709901 46209935 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN