Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1450

   Mesoscale Discussion 1450
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0519 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern South Dakota into extreme
   southwestern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...

   Valid 022219Z - 022245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe wind swath is underway with a compact MCS. Severe
   gusts up to 90 mph may occur over the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Initial supercells have grown upscale into a compact
   but intense cold-pool-driven MCS across eastern SD, with a recent
   history of gusts up to 90 mph reported. KFSD inbound velocity data
   shows a pronounced rear-inflow jet associated with this MCS, which
   is contributing to the MCS wind swath intensity. The MCS continues
   to traverse a diffuse outflow boundary, amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 35
   kts of effective bulk shear oriented normal to the MCS line (per 22Z
   mesoanalysis). The current thinking is that this MCS will maintain
   its current intensity for the next hour or so, with severe gusts
   likely. A couple of these gusts could reach 90 mph.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44589866 44719752 44639660 44419617 44079603 43879634
               43719692 43659762 43679831 44589866 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN