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Mesoscale Discussion 1434 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1434 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into northern Texas Panhandle..Oklahoma Panhandle...far southwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262229Z - 270000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Though coverage may remain isolated, the strongest storms will be capable of large hail and severe winds. Trends will be monitored for a possible watch late this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Moist upslope flow into the Raton Mesa and nearby vicinity has led to a cluster storms within parts of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle as well as more isolated development in southeastern Colorado. Modest westerly mid-level winds within the upper-level ridge atop easterly/southeasterly surface winds have promoted modest effective shear of around 30-35 kts. Given weak forcing, storm organization my remain relatively brief/sporadic and coverage of severe storms may remain isolated. The strongest storms will be capable of large hail and severe winds. It is possible that a more organized wind threat could materialize if storms can cluster. A northward moving boundary in southeast Colorado could provide a focus for this. A watch is possible, but with coverage being uncertain, convective trends will continue to be monitored late this afternoon. ..Wendt/Smith.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37280389 37440405 37640415 38220402 38440324 38350254 37960199 37740182 36790112 36220114 36020146 35950219 36040271 36490327 37280389 |
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