Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1419

   Mesoscale Discussion 1419
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0122 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the lower Mississippi Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 011822Z - 012015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing in proximity to a residual
   frontal zone and/or along outflow boundaries will be capable of
   producing strong to severe downburst winds. This threat will most
   likely remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Sporadic downbursts are evident in KPOE and KHDC
   velocity imagery as scattered, but poorly organized convection
   continues to develop along a residual frontal zone and along outflow
   boundaries across the lower MS Valley region. With time, this
   activity is forecast to spread north where temperatures are quickly
   warming into the 90s within a very moist air mass. The combination
   of steepening low-level lapse rates, high moisture content, and
   increasing buoyancy through late afternoon should maintain, if not
   increase, the potential for robust wet downbursts. Localized swaths
   of strong to severe winds (most likely 40-60 mph) appear possible
   with the more intense downbursts. Given the alignment of the
   predominantly zonally-oriented initiation zone with the weak
   easterly mid-level flow aloft, the potential for organized
   propagating clusters appears limited, which should preclude a more
   widespread severe wind threat and the need for watch issuance for LA
   and far southern MS. Nonetheless, the potential for severe
   downbursts should increase through peak heating.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   29669058 29659102 29899164 30649350 31169367 31709363
               32079334 32289287 32269253 31969181 31279008 31028963
               30788937 30518935 30318939 30088963 29829009 29669058 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH