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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1416

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Mesoscale Discussion 1416
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1416
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0709 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...southern Iowa...and northwestern

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459...

   Valid 260009Z - 260115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail
   up to 1.5-2.5" in diameter, localized damaging wind gusts, and a few
   landsput tornadoes will continue across severe thunderstorm watch

   DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells are ongoing along a cold
   front from eastern NE, to southern IA, and far northwestern IL. Both
   large hail and landspout tornadoes have already been reported with
   several of these thunderstorms. The latest surface mesoscale
   analysis and forecast soundings from around the region indicate
   enhanced stretching (0-3 km CAPE exceeding 150 J/kg) is occurring in
   conjunction with localized increased low level vorticity in close
   proximity to the cold front. Slow storm motions are resulting in
   long residence times within this favored area for landspout
   formation, especially from south-central IA westward into eastern
   NE. Upscale growth is not anticipated until late this evening. Until
   then, while daylight remains, the chance for landspout tornadoes and
   large hail will continue with the more discrete supercells that
   manage to avoid storm interactions/mergers.

   ..Barnes.. 06/26/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42429727 42459763 42229848 41859849 41189824 40589582
               40599335 40629140 41668938 42198934 42179039 41869138
               41879563 42269639 42429727 

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