Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1410

   Mesoscale Discussion 1410
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1048 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

   Areas affected...parts of west central through north central
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426...

   Valid 010348Z - 010545Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A swath of potentially damaging wind gusts appears likely
   to overspread the region through midnight-2 AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...03Z surface observations indicate that a 2-4 mb
   2-hourly surface pressure perturbation has developed with an
   evolving cluster of storms now beginning to propagate east-northeast
   of the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity.  This includes rises centered
   near/north of Akron CO and falls east-northeastward across Ogalala
   through North Platte NE, with perhaps a developing wake low near
   Pine Bluffs NE.  

   Rapid destabilization has occurred the past few hours in a narrow
   corridor east-northeast of the evolving cluster in response to
   low-level moistening, including surface dew point increases of 8-12
   F, which now appears to be supporting CAPE up to 3000 J/kg.  A
   meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation has become better defined, and
   there appears considerable potential for further convective
   intensification and at least a bit further upscale growth.  An
   ongoing increase in severe wind gusts appears likely to continue at
   least several more hours, with a continuing risk for large hail as
   well.

   ..Kerr.. 07/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41810151 42040067 42789903 41929840 41030120 41410173
               41810151 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN