Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1407

   Mesoscale Discussion 1407
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0801 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

   Areas affected...Far Southeast IA...Central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251301Z - 251500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are possible from
   southeast Iowa into central Illinois over the next few hours.
   Sporadic/isolated nature to the storms should preclude the need for
   a watch.

   DISCUSSION...A large area of warm-air advection initiated
   thunderstorms continues from southern IA across northern IL. While
   individual storms within this region are generally moving eastward,
   the overall area of precipitation has started shifting
   southeastward, likely in response to the southeastward shift of the
   low-level jet. Steep mid-level lapse rates support strong elevated
   buoyancy across the region, as sampled in the 12Z ILX sounding.
   Moderate vertical shear exists within this region as well, with the
   12Z ILX sounding sampling around 35 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear. A
   sporadic intensification of the cells within this general area is
   possible, with occasional isolated hail and/or damaging gusts
   possible. Sporadic/isolated nature to the storms should preclude the
   need for a watch, but convective trends will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/25/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41799131 41418913 40838746 40148823 40969205 41799131