Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1407

   Mesoscale Discussion 1407
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

   Areas affected...portions of western Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 010100Z - 010300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail
   may develop across portions of western Michigan over the next 1-2
   hours. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A convective cluster that developed across portions of
   central/eastern Wisconsin earlier this afternoon has evolved
   eastward and is currently noted over Lake Michigan. While radar
   imagery from KGRB indicates that the outflow from this complex has
   largely outrun the main convective cores, a modest strengthening of
   the nocturnal low-level jet may help to sustained this convection
   (and isolated thunderstorms developing farther to the east) for at
   least another couple of hours. While increasing low-level
   inhibition, neutral mid-level heights, and marginal effective shear
   (generally 25-35 kts) should largely limit the overall severe
   threat, strong buoyancy (MLCAPE 3000-3500 J/kg) and marginal
   convective organization may continue to promote some potential for
   isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail as this convection moves
   eastward into western Michigan. Watch issuance is unlikely at this
   time owing to the expectation for the magnitude of the severe risk
   to remain limited.

   ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   44768634 44758605 44558559 44248539 44028542 43788558
               43608585 43478625 43418652 43638661 43848665 44098663
               44398651 44768634 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN