Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1397

   Mesoscale Discussion 1397
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

   Areas affected...the Florida Panhandle...southern/eastern
   Alabama...and far western Georgia.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301847Z - 302015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible this
   afternoon and evening.

   DISCUSSION...Very strong instability (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE per SPC
   mesoanalysis) has developed across Alabama and Georgia where
   dewpoints are in the mid 70s with temperatures in the low to mid
   90s. Lapse rates are quite weak, but with minimal inhibition and
   very strong instability, robust updrafts are anticipated. Deep-layer
   shear is quite weak which will limit storm organization somewhat.
   However, there is a stronger belt of flow (25-30 knots)  sampled by
   the MXX VWP between 4 and 6 km. This may assist in some storm
   organization in an otherwise unfavorable deep-layer shear
   environment. 

   This combination of instability and some mid-level flow may result
   in a few multicell storms capable of damaging wind gusts. However, a
   more organized severe weather threat is not anticipated and
   therefore, no watch is expected.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30098566 32188497 33188419 33768418 33948491 33828596
               33778602 33308712 32418756 31278830 30398824 30158807
               30098566 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH