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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1392

Mesoscale Discussion 1392
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1392
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0313 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

   Areas affected...North-Central North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450...

   Valid 240813Z - 240945Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450

   SUMMARY...Large hail remains possible with the pair of supercells
   moving southeastward across north-central North Dakota.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated supercells continue to progress gradually
   southeastward across north-central North Dakota. Current storm
   motion with the storm over Bottineau County is around 35 kt. The
   storm farther west just crossing the international border is moving
   a bit slower, with its motion estimated at closer to 30 kt. Both of
   these supercells remain organized and intense, with recent MESH
   indicating severe hail (particularly with the westernmost cell).

   The lead/easternmost cell may begin weakening soon as it moves into
   a less buoyant airmass, although the organized character of this
   cell may allow it to persist farther east into greater stability
   than would usually be expected. The westernmost cell should be able
   to maintain it intensity for at least the next hour or so before it
   too begins to weaken. Large hail will remain possible with these
   storms, particularly the westernmost cell, for the next hour or two.
   Given the forecast weakening of these storms with eastern extent, a
   downstream watch is not currently anticipated, but convective trends
   will still be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier.. 06/24/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   49320220 49049952 48319896 47849977 47980102 48540242

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