Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1383

   Mesoscale Discussion 1383
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

   Areas affected...the Western U.P. of Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 292024Z - 292230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for at least isolated occurrences of severe
   wind gusts is expected to increase in the 2100-2130Z (4:00-4:30 PM
   CDT) time frame. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2020Z, a long-lived bowing MCS was progressing
   through far western Lake Superior at around 45 kt. Extrapolation of
   the current motion takes it into the western U.P. of MI and adjacent
   near-shore waters between 2100-2130Z. The MCS is located to the
   north of a warm front lifting north through northern WI, suggesting
   that it might be slightly elevated atop a shallow near-ground
   inversion. Nonetheless, the presence of a strong rear-inflow jet
   will support the potential for at least isolated severe wind gusts
   late this afternoon into early evening.

   ..Mead/Guyer.. 06/29/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...

   LAT...LON   46869061 47328936 47488796 46608794 46228838 46318927
               46469014 46609068 46869061 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN