Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1381

   Mesoscale Discussion 1381
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0209 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

   Areas affected...portions of western south Carolina and eastern
   Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291909Z - 292145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts possible across portions of western
   South Carolina and eastern Georgia. A watch is not anticipated at
   this time.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is developing near the Georgia/South
   Carolina border at the periphery of an upper-level ridge. A deep,
   moist air mass is in place with weak flow throughout the column, as
   shown by the JAX 18Z RAOB. The weak flow is giving rise to mainly
   single-cell convection with occasional multicells, and a few weak
   downburst signatures have been observed on regional WSR-88Ds. Due to
   the moist profiles, some damaging gusts may occur with water-loaded
   downdrafts, and any clustering may increase the potential for
   damaging gusts. Additionally, a weak surface boundary may provide a
   focus for additional convection as the afternoon progresses.
   However, the coverage of damaging gusts is expected to be sparse
   enough that a watch is not anticipated at this time.

   ..Supinie/Guyer.. 06/29/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   32188057 34478189 35198233 35328289 35108326 33528375
               32058351 30928248 30618152 31308104 32188057 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH