Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1379

   Mesoscale Discussion 1379
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1137 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

   Areas affected...parts of Northern and Central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...414...

   Valid 291637Z - 291830Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413, 414
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts and large hail will
   continue with a long-lived bow echo. Tornado potential may increase
   this afternoon within the southern fringe of the convective system
   as it interacts with a warm front.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived bow echo over Wadena and Todd Counties as
   of 1630Z has assumed more of an easterly motion over the past hour
   owing to storm development/propagation on the southern fringe of the
   convective system. That propagational component has resulted in the
   storm system now moving parallel to a warm front lifting north
   through the region. The air mass south of the warm front has become
   strongly unstable with the modification of the 12z MPX sounding for
   current surface conditions yielding MLCAPE as high as 4500-5000
   J/kg. The strong buoyancy coincides with 45-55 kt of effective bulk
   shear, per objective analysis with that parameter space supportive
   of the continuation of the bow echo, assuming the convection is
   fully rooted within the boundary layer. 

   Damaging winds with gusts of 60-80 mph will remain the primary
   hazard; however, the potential for HP supercells to evolve within
   the broader-scale convective complex will support a large hail
   threat. The tornado threat may also increase this afternoon,
   especially with any supercell structures that can become established
   within the southern flank of the MCS in the vicinity of the warm
   front.

   ..Mead.. 06/29/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   46059549 46879560 47169533 47419353 47279203 46669182
               46069199 45889428 46059549 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN