Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1372

   Mesoscale Discussion 1372
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1143 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

   Areas affected...parts of northwestern Nebraska into central South
   Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412...

   Valid 290443Z - 290645Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development probably will continue
   to grow upscale and begin to become better organized with increasing
   potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts, in addition to
   large hail, through 1-3 AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Strongest forcing for ascent associated with
   lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection is still developing across the
   Nebraska Panhandle into areas of South Dakota to the southeast of
   the Black Hills.  However, this is forecast to begin shifting
   north-northeastward, across and north of the western Nebraska and
   South Dakota state border area through 06-08Z.  As it does, ongoing
   convective development is likely to continue to to increase and
   organize, particularly as convective outflow consolidates and
   propagates northeastward, within 30-40 southerly deep-layer mean
   flow.  As it does, strengthening north-northeasterly updraft inflow
   emanating from a moist unstable boundary-layer increasingly
   characterized by lower 70s F dew points may begin to support notable
   further intensification with increasing potential for strong to
   severe wind gusts, in addition to large hail.

   ..Kerr.. 06/29/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43610236 44430171 44000003 42600137 42120256 42390353
               43610236 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN