Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1360

   Mesoscale Discussion 1360
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0825 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

   Areas affected...parts of western into central North Dakota and
   adjacent portions of South Dakota

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 406...

   Valid 280125Z - 280330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 406 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for strong to severe wind gusts and a few
   tornadoes appears to be increasing with an organizing cluster of
   storms, particularly across northwestern into portions of central
   North Dakota through 9-11 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Considerable upscale convective growth has occurred the
   past few hours, focused within the lee surface trough near and east
   of the Montana/Dakotas state border vicinity.  A notable 2-hour
   surface pressure fall/rise couplet has become evident in 01Z surface
   observations, along and just ahead of strengthening outflow. 
   Activity is embedded within deep-layer southerly mean flow on the
   order of 30 kt, with strengthening easterly to northeasterly
   near-surface inflow of moist air characterized by moderate CAPE
   likely to support further intensification of convection through
   02-03Z.  It appears that a meso-beta scale lower/mid-tropospheric
   cyclonic vortex could form near/south of the Williston vicinity,
   accompanied by strengthening southwesterly rear-inflow, and
   increasing potential for severe wind gusts.  A few evolving
   meso-gamma scale vortices may be accompanied by locally more
   damaging gusts and/or tornadoes.

   ..Kerr.. 06/28/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...

   LAT...LON   49250451 48870148 47030057 45570087 45230197 47060274
               47500330 47580372 48480472 49250451 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN