Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1359

   Mesoscale Discussion 1359
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0756 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northwestern Nebraska

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 406...

   Valid 280056Z - 280230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 406 continues.

   SUMMARY...A discrete supercell in the Nebraska Panhandle will pose a
   risk for all severe hazards over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts an intensifying,
   discrete supercell located in Box Butte County, South Dakota. Latest
   objective analysis places this storm in an environment favorable for
   all severe hazards, with 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE, SHIP values of 3-4, and
   effective layer STP of 4-5+ noted within the inflow region. This is
   supported by strengthening low-level flow and increasingly curved
   low-level hodographs noted within the LNX VWP, with 40+ kts of
   southerly flow sampled at 1 km AGL and 0-500 m SRH approaching 200
   m2/s2. While modest capping/inhibition remains in this environment,
   strong dynamical lifting within the mesocyclone should continue to
   overcome this inhibition for at least another 1-2 hours as it
   progresses eastward across northwestern Nebraska.

   ..Chalmers.. 06/28/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42550293 42710262 42800199 42700141 42420126 42060159
               41980219 42100291 42320304 42550293 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN