Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1346

   Mesoscale Discussion 1346
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0939 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

   Areas affected...southeast Missouri...northeast Arkansas...far
   southern Illinois...western Kentucky...and northwest Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271439Z - 271715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential may increase by late morning
   across the discussion area. Convective trends are being monitored
   for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

   DISCUSSION...Both radar and satellite data indicate a well-defined
   MCV in the Springfield, MO vicinity with a related band of
   thunderstorms across portions of south-central MO into north-central
   AR. Recent IR satellite trends show cooling cloud tops with the MO
   storms, along with an uptick in lightning frequency. The downstream
   air mass across the discussion area is quite moist with dewpoints in
   the mid 70 to low 80, which, coupled with filtered sunshine, is
   contributing to an uncapped and moderately unstable environment with
   MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, per latest objective analysis.

   Both the KSRX and KLZK VWPs are sampling an enhancement of mid-level
   winds within the southern periphery of the MCV with speeds as high
   as 45-55 kt observed in the 4-6 km layer. Those observations suggest
   that a more organized damaging wind threat may evolve by late
   morning as the ongoing storms continue east and encounter an
   increasingly unstable air mass.

   ..Mead/Guyer.. 06/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36059187 37059171 37599095 37578927 37448849 37158813
               36268830 35708927 35579054 35579140 36059187 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH