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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1346

Mesoscale Discussion 1346
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1346
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0442 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

   Areas affected...Sandhills Vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 202142Z - 202315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A watch is likely for parts of western/central Nebraska by
   this evening. Storm coverage with eastern extent may remain quite
   isolated in the short term, but additional activity will move in
   from the west.

   DISCUSSION...Despite rising mid-level heights downstream of a
   digging trough in the lower Colorado River Valley, an isolated
   supercell has developed along a warm front in the Sandhills. This
   appears to be aided be weak warm advection and perhaps a weak
   shortwave perturbation moving through Nebraska. Sufficient mid-level
   lapse rates and the supercellular mode should promote a risk of
   large to potentially very-large hail with this storm. Enhanced
   low-level SRH near the boundary would also suggest that a low-end
   tornado threat would exist as well. Visible satellite and KLNX radar
   suggest other updrafts trying to develop in the nearby vicinity.
   Some of these updrafts have already merged with the more mature
   supercell. This activity could further increase tornado potential on
   the storm scale.

   The primary uncertainty in this scenario is storm coverage, given
   the rising heights alluded to earlier. However, this storm will be
   capable of all severe hazards. Furthermore, storms that are expected
   to congeal in the Nebraska Panhandle may progress into these areas
   as the low-level jet strengthens this evening.

   ..Wendt/Edwards.. 06/20/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42369849 42139860 41849909 41959999 41980017 42220059
               42670075 43050042 43169929 42999857 42369849 

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