Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1344

   Mesoscale Discussion 1344
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0821 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northern Oklahoma...far southern
   Kansas...and far southwestern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401...

   Valid 270121Z - 270245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms may persist into the
   overnight hours, but the severe risk should gradually diminish with
   time. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts remain possible in
   the short-term, however.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection has largely congealed into several
   clusters along developing cold pools and a surface cold front across
   northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas over the past hour. Modest
   effective shear (generally 30-35 kts or less) along the southern
   periphery of a subtle, mid-level wave continues to favor an
   outflow-dominant, multicellular storm mode and the potential for
   marginal supercell structures with any discrete convection. While a
   strengthening low-level jet, with an axis displaced across western
   Oklahoma, may aid in the maintenance of thunderstorms into tonight,
   gradual low-level stabilization should yield a diminishing severe
   risk over the next couple of hours. Isolated large hail and
   occasional damaging/severe wind gusts will continue to be possible
   with ongoing convection in the meantime, however.

   ..Chalmers.. 06/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36459854 36739823 37139721 37309577 37319474 37189434
               36929413 36559423 36499428 36089518 35779626 35669703
               35669744 35729779 35899818 36179849 36459854 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN