Mesoscale Discussion 1342
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
Areas affected...Western Colorado and the Four Corners Region
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 201809Z - 202015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Convective coverage is expected to increase this afternoon
as temperatures warm into the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s across
the higher terrain of the intermountian west. Scattered
thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible, but WW issuance is not expected at this time.
DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing over portions of W CO, with
coverage expected to expand into the Four Corners region later this
afternoon as convective temperatures are reached ahead of an
approaching upper level trough.
Morning sounding observations from Grand Junction and Flagstaff
suggest wind shear supportive of organized convection, with deep
layer bulk shear values in the 55-60kt range, and 500-1000 J/kg
SBCAPE present in the SPC mesoanalysis. However, high LCL heights
and widespread convective coverage will result in outflow dominant
storms and frequent storm interactions, limiting overall severe
potential.
Still, a few reports of hail and damaging winds can be expected with
any stronger, organized convection that develops. Given overall
uncertainty in convective organization, however, WW issuance is not
expected at this time.
..Halbert/Lyons/Hart.. 06/20/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC...
LAT...LON 40850643 40840601 40600565 39350548 38540535 37830554
37190681 36790747 36490806 36180867 35910917 35970982
36231026 36771060 37241077 37501062 37861030 38680995
39250950 39860847 40720716 40850643