Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1341

   Mesoscale Discussion 1341
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0614 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southern Indiana into northern/central
   Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 262314Z - 270045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A loosely organized band of thunderstorms may bring an
   isolated threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized band of convection has developed
   downstream of a subtle, remnant MCV analyzed north of the lower Ohio
   Valley. Latest radar imagery from KLVX depicts a well-defined cold
   pool associated with this band. Transient, weak rotation has also
   been occasionally noted with this convection. Thus, at least some
   potential for isolated damaging wind gusts may accompany this band
   for the next 1-2 hours. A modest strengthening of a southwesterly
   low-level jet and clockwise low-level hodograph curvature (as
   sampled by the LVX VWP) downstream of this band also suggest that a
   brief, embedded tornado may be possible. The need for a WW remains
   unclear due to uncertainty regarding the persistence/intensity of
   this band owing to the loss of diurnal heating and only weak
   instability (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE per objective analysis).
   Trends will continue to be monitored, and a targeted WW may be
   considered should a corridor of locally greater severe potential
   become evident.

   ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/26/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   38058708 38358716 38558703 38758640 38918555 38908503
               38828475 38668454 38398441 38088444 37708464 37488514
               37378602 37328651 37388674 37808699 38058708 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH