Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1332

   Mesoscale Discussion 1332
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

   Areas affected...parts of the TX Gulf Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191643Z - 191915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic waterspouts may move onshore as a brief tornado
   before likely weakening inland. Overall threat may remain relatively
   lower-end in the near-term, but will continue to be monitored for a
   narrow tornado watch.

   DISCUSSION...Several offshore circulations have been noted late this
   morning but with a consistent weakening trend as convection has
   approached the coast. As of 1635Z, near-term waterspout threat
   appears roughly centered from the Galveston to Corpus Christi
   vicinity, where 0-1 km shear of 25-35 kts persists in HGX/CRP VWP
   data. Visible satellite and radar trends suggest a 30-90 min
   relative lull in convection may occur along the coast between the
   ongoing band of cells and another band of cells 60-80 nm offshore.
   This break may become necessary for some increase in surface-based
   destabilization along the coast as modified 12Z CRP/BRO soundings
   suggest it remains limited. If this occurs, an increase in brief
   tornado potential may be realized this afternoon.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 06/19/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   29209503 28699529 28229636 27279717 26679729 26749770
               27959729 28869618 29209503