Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1331

   Mesoscale Discussion 1331
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0138 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

   Areas affected...southeast Kansas...northeast Oklahoma...and
   southwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261838Z - 262045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe weather potential is expected to increase across
   the area this afternoon. Large hail up to 1.5-1.75" and severe wind
   gusts of 60-65 mph appear to be the primary hazards. Convective
   trends are being monitored for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

   DISCUSSION...Recent trends in visible satellite indicate deepening
   cumulus along an outflow boundary from near the Arkansas City to
   Independence, KS vicinities into southwest MO, north of Joplin. The
   air mass to the south of the boundary has warmed into the 80s,
   which, coupled with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s is resulting in
   MLCAPE of 1500-2500+ J/kg, per latest objective analysis.
   Large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous with the
   movement of several MCVs to the east of the region and no apparent
   upstream disturbances in water vapor imagery. Nonetheless, the
   presence of modest low-level warm advection observed by the KSGF VWP
   may be sufficient to support eventual storm development in the
   vicinity of the outflow boundary.

   Area VWPs and forecast soundings suggest deep-layer shear will be on
   the margins of that supportive of supercell storm modes. That,
   coupled with only modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, should limit
   hail size to 1.5-1.75". Damaging wind potential may ultimately be of
   greater concern owing to the very moist environment and potential
   for water-loaded downdrafts. A brief tornado is possible given
   sizable 0-3 km CAPE and ambient vorticity in the vicinity of the
   boundary. Otherwise, generally modest low-level shear should limit
   the overall tornado potential.

   Convective trends are being monitored for the potential issuance of
   a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

   ..Mead/Guyer.. 06/26/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37609617 37949483 38119345 37889279 37269258 36779311
               36619422 36709550 36839620 36919655 37159666 37609617 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN