Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1330

   Mesoscale Discussion 1330
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

   Areas affected...eastern Kentucky into western parts of West
   Virginia and Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 261759Z - 262000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for a few damaging wind gusts is expected to
   increase this evening. Limited areal coverage and magnitude of
   threat are expected to preclude a watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of a well-defined MCV, a line of showers and
   thunderstorms has recently intensified in the vicinity of I-75, near
   Richmond. Daytime heating within the downstream air mass is
   contributing to destabilization with steep low-level lapse rates and
   MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg evident in latest objective analysis. As
   such, expect the ongoing storms to further intensify while moving
   through eastern KY, potentially into western parts of WV and VA this
   afternoon. While relatively weak wind fields and resultant vertical
   shear are expected to limit the potential for an organized cold pool
   to evolve, locally damaging downburst winds appear possible given
   the presence of the steep low-level lapse rates.

   The anticipated areal coverage and magnitude of the damaging wind
   threat are currently expected to remain too marginal for a watch
   issuance.

   ..Mead/Guyer.. 06/26/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37098463 37878421 38268324 38578205 38488130 37938109
               37398153 37078184 36698270 36678408 37098463 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH