Mesoscale Discussion 1326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182225Z - 190030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are possible by early evening. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to backbuild late this afternoon along a cold front across southwest KS, with increasing cumulus noted into parts of the central OK Panhandle. With time, deep convection could develop into the OK and northern TX Panhandles, within a very warm, well-mixed, and moderate to strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is rather marginal across the region (generally 20-30 kt), but a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell could develop with time, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. A brief landspout will also be possible near the front/dryline intersection across the central OK Panhandle. Farther south, uncertainty increases regarding the coverage of storm development into early evening across parts of the central/southern TX Panhandle. However, a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough could aid in development of a couple stronger storms capable of hail and isolated severe gusts. Watch issuance is possible if observational trends begin to support the potential for multiple severe storms across the region into this evening. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 35650281 36910194 36920076 36530062 35910072 34850110 34460149 34410174 34330315 35650281