US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1320

   Mesoscale Discussion 1320
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0101 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

   Areas of northeast Pennsylvania into New
   York...Vermont...northern New Hampshire...western Maine

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181801Z - 181930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong, damaging gusts and a couple instances of hail
   should occur with the stronger storms that can develop through the
   afternoon. The severe threat should remain more isolated, and a WW
   issuance is not currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...Weak deep-layer flow and shear are present across
   portions of the Hudson Valley into New England as a deep-layer
   anticyclone persists over the Mid Atlantic. Nonetheless, strong
   surface heating has boosted surface temperatures into the upper 80s
   F, supporting both the approach of convective temperatures (hence
   developing CU), and the achievement of widespread 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE.
   Though quite modest, westerly upper-level flow along the northern
   periphery of the anticyclone is supporting slight elongation of
   upper-level hodographs. As such, a mix of pulse-single-cells and
   perhaps a couple of multicells are likely this afternoon. Given some
   dry air in the surface-850 mb and 700-500 mb layers (per latest RAP
   forecast soundings), the stronger storms will be capable of
   producing strong wind gusts (some damaging), and a couple instances
   of hail may also be observed. However, the overall severe threat
   should be more isolated. A WW issuance currently appears unlikely.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/18/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43167746 43607612 44477502 44887332 45017200 46117016
               45926948 45096980 43737181 41907426 41127593 40927669
               41117752 41737780 42447781 43167746 

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