Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1315

   Mesoscale Discussion 1315
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

   Areas affected...Central and Southeast Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 252024Z - 252300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storms capable of
   large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the
   discussion area this afternoon. Convective trends are being
   monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past couple of hours, regenerative
   thunderstorm development has been observed along the CO Front Range
   in the vicinity of Colorado Springs with additional deepening
   cumulus development noted from along the Sangre De Cristo Mountains
   in southeast CO to the Raton Mesa vicinity in far northeast NM. 

   Latest surface observations indicate the presence of a moist,
   post-frontal air mass in place to the immediate east with dewpoints
   in the 50s and estimated MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. However,
   objective fields indicate some degree of capping in place, which may
   tend to keep any storm development confined to the immediate high
   terrain, at least in the near term. The exception is along the Raton
   Mesa in the vicinity of a surface cold front, where stronger
   boundary-layer heating is allowing a deepening cumulus field to
   spread east into the High Plains.

   Afternoon water vapor imagery indicates the discussion area is on
   the southern fringe of better implied forcing for ascent attendant
   to a short-wave trough moving into the NE Panhandle. As such, storms
   may remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. Current VWPs from
   KFTG and KPUX indicate east-northeast low-level winds becoming
   westerly at 25-30 kt in the mid levels, resulting in sufficient
   vertical shear for rotating storms capable of large hail. The
   primary uncertainty is areal coverage of any severe weather threat.
   Convective trends are being monitored for signs of a greater
   spatiotemporal threat that would necessitate a Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch issuance.

   ..Mead/Guyer.. 06/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   38470506 39360519 40170519 40230443 39330338 38540320
               38320291 37960238 37570232 37190280 37000341 36920421
               37510466 38470506 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN