Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1314

   Mesoscale Discussion 1314
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

   Areas affected...Central Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 252006Z - 252200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered loosely organized thunderstorms may pose a risk
   of sporadic large hail and severe gusts through early evening. Watch
   issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually intensifying within the
   higher terrain of central Montana over the past hour as diurnal
   heating drives increasing buoyancy and upslope flow/orographic
   ascent. This activity is also largely focused under the upper-level
   thermal trough where 500 mb temperatures are as cold as -15 C per
   the 18 UTC TFX RAOB. These cold temperatures aloft are supporting a
   pocket of somewhat limited buoyancy (MUCAPE of only around 500-1000
   J/kg), but even this modest buoyancy profile may be adequate to
   allow deeper convection to be influenced by the 25-30 knot mid-level
   flow inferred by regional RAOBs with southward extent. This may
   support some transient organization of the deeper, more intense
   cores with an attendant threat for occasional large hail and severe
   gusts through early evening. In general, however, the overall
   thermodynamic and kinematic environment appears too limited for a
   particularly widespread or prolonged severe threat.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   47881139 47391073 46511032 45741011 45171042 44911091
               44861166 45201207 45671265 46421318 46891341 47311344
               47671322 47871283 48021209 47881139 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN