Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1312

   Mesoscale Discussion 1312
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0210 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern Indiana into Ohio and far western
   Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251910Z - 252115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a diffuse cold
   front may pose a damaging wind and large hail threat through the
   afternoon and early evening hours. Watch issuance may be needed to
   address this concern.

   DISCUSSION...The early stages of convective development are well
   underway across eastern IN into northwest OH as destabilization
   continues along and ahead of a diffuse cold front. Additionally,
   growing cumulus is noted in GOES visible imagery across central OH
   where temperatures are warming into the low 80s. Continued
   thunderstorm development is expected through late afternoon as the
   front continues to migrate east/southeast and ascent ahead of an
   approaching upper wave/upper jet streak. Recent HRRR solutions
   appear to be capturing these trends well, and forecast sounding from
   recent runs depict fairly marginal mid-level lapse rates, but
   sufficient buoyancy profiles to utilize the strong deep-layer shear
   in place across the region. Consequently, a few supercells and/or
   organized convective bands appear possible through early evening as
   this activity spreads east across OH and eventually into far western
   PA. While the modest thermodynamic environment may modulate overall
   storm intensity, sporadic large hail and severe gusts up to 55-65
   mph appear possible. Watch issuance may be needed if the severe
   threat becomes sufficiently widespread through the next few hours.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   40278583 40998437 41578332 41578309 41468267 41448247
               41508195 41668141 42098016 41907996 41568000 41108026
               40558100 39978196 39668323 39518417 39508480 39548536
               39648580 39808594 39968599 40278583 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN