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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1312

Mesoscale Discussion 1312
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1312
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0829 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

   Areas affected...west-central Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 429...

   Valid 180129Z - 180230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 429

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of instances of strong to severe
   wind will continue eastward this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms ongoing from central WI into
   far southeastern MN and northeastern IA will continue to pose some
   risk of strong to severe wind. Confidence in downstream risk beyond
   WW429 remains uncertain. The downstream environment is moist and
   unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg.
   Should storms be able to develop a strong cold pool and become
   better organized within this regime, the risk for damaging wind may
   continue past WW429. Thus far, this line has remained sub-severe,
   with strongest reflectivity located mostly well behind its own
   outflow, but trends will be monitored. A downstream watch is
   unlikely at this time.

   ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/18/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43629184 44229118 44679074 44799063 44829015 44708980
               44548973 44128967 43668971 43468972 43199032 43199122

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