Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1311

   Mesoscale Discussion 1311
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0655 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast WY into southeast MT

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430...

   Valid 172355Z - 180130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated hail and strong/severe gusts will
   continue this evening.

   DISCUSSION...An earlier supercell over southeast MT has weakened
   upon moving into a cooler and less unstable environment. However, a
   couple stronger cells are ongoing this evening from extreme
   southeast MT into northeast WY, and additional storm development and
   intensification remains possible as a vigorous mid/upper-level
   shortwave trough approaches the region from the interior Northwest. 

   Weak to moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 50+ kt will
   continue to support occasional supercell structures, with a threat
   of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. The eastern extent of the
   short-term severe threat will continue to be limited by strong
   MLCINH.

   ..Dean.. 06/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   43750633 45800549 46070475 45810438 45250431 44390447
               43990476 43710515 43560596 43750633