Mesoscale Discussion 1308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...far western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172242Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of instances of large hail and damaging wind likely this evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated near the surface dryline across far western Texas, near Fort Stockton, TX. Ahead of the dryline, temperatures exceed 100 F with dew point in the mid 40s to upper 50s. A gradient of MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg is observed in surface objective analysis, along with deep layer shear around 40-45 kts, with strong mid-level capping to the east of the dryline. Given strong deep-layer shear and sufficient MLCAPE, steep lapse rates, and large dewpoint depressions, high-based supercell thunderstorms capable of instances of large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Forcing is largely focused along the dryline and near terrain features. With downstream inhibition, storm coverage is likely to remain fairly isolated. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 29860322 29450381 29560424 29790438 30280428 30880393 31530385 31770374 31850317 31830294 31780276 31530256 30910261 30460277 29860322