Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1308

   Mesoscale Discussion 1308
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1213 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

   Areas affected...Central Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251713Z - 251915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds is expected to increase
   through the afternoon across central Wyoming. Watch issuance may be
   needed as thunderstorms begin to intensify.

   DISCUSSION...A band of weak convection has shown signs of gradual
   intensification (per GOES IR imagery) across west-central WY over
   the past few hours ahead of an approaching upper wave. Weak buoyancy
   depicted in recent RAP mesoanalysis has modulated overall convective
   intensity so far; however, clearing is noted immediately downstream
   in central WY. Through mid-afternoon, mixed-layer buoyancy should
   steadily increase ahead of the convective band as temperatures warm
   into the low to mid 70s within a moist air mass. This will most
   likely result in further intensification of the line, especially as
   convection begins to be influenced by 30-35 knots of deep-layer wind
   shear overspreading the region (35-40 knot mid-level flow is noted
   in upstream VWPs). Consequently, an uptick in severe wind potential
   is expected. Gusts will most likely remain in the 60-70 mph range,
   but occasional gusts as strong as 75 mph appear possible based on
   more aggressive CAM solutions. Although clearing is noted
   immediately downstream of the band, persistent showers and clouds
   lingering further downstream across southeast WY may limit the
   overall coverage of the severe wind threat. Trends will be monitored
   and watch issuance may be needed in the coming hours as the band
   intensifies.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   41600721 41890951 42040981 42340981 42630949 42950924
               43260910 43630903 43960894 44130870 44200826 44020562
               43810514 43360506 42840521 42220563 41850607 41650653
               41600721 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN