US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1308

   Mesoscale Discussion 1308
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0542 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

   Areas affected...far western Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 172242Z - 180045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercells capable of instances of large hail and damaging
   wind likely this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated near the surface
   dryline across far western Texas, near Fort Stockton, TX. Ahead of
   the dryline, temperatures exceed 100 F with dew point in the mid 40s
   to upper 50s. A gradient of MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg is observed
   in surface objective analysis, along with deep layer shear around
   40-45 kts, with strong mid-level capping to the east of the dryline.
    Given strong deep-layer shear and sufficient MLCAPE, steep lapse
   rates, and large dewpoint depressions, high-based supercell
   thunderstorms capable of instances of large hail and damaging winds
   will be possible. Forcing is largely focused along the dryline and
   near terrain features.  With downstream inhibition, storm coverage
   is likely to remain fairly isolated.

   ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/17/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29860322 29450381 29560424 29790438 30280428 30880393
               31530385 31770374 31850317 31830294 31780276 31530256
               30910261 30460277 29860322 

Source link