Mesoscale Discussion 1308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Areas affected...far western Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 172242Z - 180045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Supercells capable of instances of large hail and damaging
wind likely this evening.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated near the surface
dryline across far western Texas, near Fort Stockton, TX. Ahead of
the dryline, temperatures exceed 100 F with dew point in the mid 40s
to upper 50s. A gradient of MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg is observed
in surface objective analysis, along with deep layer shear around
40-45 kts, with strong mid-level capping to the east of the dryline.
Given strong deep-layer shear and sufficient MLCAPE, steep lapse
rates, and large dewpoint depressions, high-based supercell
thunderstorms capable of instances of large hail and damaging winds
will be possible. Forcing is largely focused along the dryline and
near terrain features. With downstream inhibition, storm coverage
is likely to remain fairly isolated.
..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/17/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...
LAT...LON 29860322 29450381 29560424 29790438 30280428 30880393
31530385 31770374 31850317 31830294 31780276 31530256
30910261 30460277 29860322