US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1307

   Mesoscale Discussion 1307
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0535 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

   Areas affected...Western into central NE...extreme southern SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 172235Z - 180000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercell development is possible by early evening. Should
   development occur, a few tornadoes, very large hail, and isolated
   severe gusts will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...A warm front is draped from west-central into northeast
   NE late this afternoon. Near and south of the warm front, rich
   low-level moisture beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted
   on the 21Z LBF sounding) has resulted in strong destabilization,
   with MLCAPE increasing above 3000 J/kg. Meanwhile, favorably veering
   wind profiles with height (also noted on the 21Z LBF sounding) are
   supporting effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for supercells.
   Low-level shear/SRH is already rather strong near and just north of
   the warm front, and will continue to increase with time as a
   southerly low-level jet intensifies into the evening. 

   Uncertainty remains regarding the coverage of surface-based storm
   development into the early evening, given the rather strong capping
   related to the very well-defined EML. However, the increasing
   low-level jet may aid in development of one or two supercells near
   the warm front by early evening, with some development also possible
   farther south into the warmer and more well-mixed environment. Any
   sustained supercells near the warm-frontal zone would pose a tornado
   threat, in addition to potential for very large hail and isolated
   severe gusts. Watch issuance will become increasingly probable for
   parts of the area if supercell development appears imminent.

   ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/17/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40649991 40600163 40880195 41190218 41390248 41910291
               42130293 42450288 42730250 42990175 43060111 43100028
               43089916 42079817 41239828 40709913 40609938 40649991 

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