Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1301

   Mesoscale Discussion 1301
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0646 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

   Areas affected...portions of western Nebraska into far northwestern
   Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

   Valid 242346Z - 250015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe risk should expand east of Tornado Watch 389
   into western NE and far northwestern KS through the evening hours.
   Severe wind and hail are the main threats, though a tornado is also
   possible. A WW will be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...Storms are increasing in both coverage and intensity
   along the CO/NE border, likely due to strong 700 mb WAA
   overspreading a surface baroclinic boundary. In addition to minimal
   MLCINH over the region, 23Z mesoanalysis shows nearly 2000 J/kg
   MLCAPE overlapping with 50+ kts of effective SRH, which should be
   more than sufficient to support severe hail or wind with the
   stronger updrafts. Storms that can remain closer to the surface
   boundary will have a better chance at producing a tornado.
   High-resolution model guidance (including deterministic HRRR runs
   and the latest WoFS guidance) suggest that storm clustering and
   potential upscale growth are possible later this evening. Should
   this occur, the severe gust threat may become more pronounced.

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 06/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   42660277 40439865 40009864 39749880 39569921 39549975
               39670038 39970091 40320141 40820196 41090231 41340250
               42660277 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN