Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1295

   Mesoscale Discussion 1295
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1042 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

   Areas affected...Southwest/central/northeast NE

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425...

   Valid 170342Z - 170515Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out into
   the early overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...An earlier prolific hail-producing supercell has
   weakened across southwest NE late this evening, while other storms
   from south-central into northeast NE have failed to mature thus far.
   Some potential remains for one of the lingering areas of convection
   to flare up over the next 1-2 hours, as a low-level jet continues to
   strengthen across the region. This may be most likely near/north of
   a surface front that will move slowly northward tonight. However,
   with the strongest ascent becoming focused farther north (into
   northern NE and southern SD), the window of opportunity for
   redevelopment closer to the surface front may be relatively limited.

   ..Dean.. 06/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   40600117 41809885 42459750 42579706 42469665 42039665
               41689671 41269712 40239904 40479979 40440022 40470104
               40600117