Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1291

   Mesoscale Discussion 1291
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

   Areas affected...Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241720Z - 241945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible through the
   afternoon across the central and southern Florida Peninsula.

   DISCUSSION...Ample heating of a very moist airmass through early
   afternoon is resulting in moderate to strong instability across the
   FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms have already developed, mainly
   along Atlantic coast sea breezes. Additional thunderstorm
   development is likely through the afternoon. Vertical shear will
   remain weak, limiting a greater organized severe risk. However,
   given MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates with the
   high PW environment, strong outflow/downburst winds will be
   possible. Additionally, if sufficient clustering can occur, this
   would increase the risk for forward propagation and locally damaging
   wind potential. Overall severe risk is expected to remain limited
   and a watch is not expected at this time.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29108082 27568014 26487988 25798005 25658058 25828118
               26258164 27378200 28328228 28788237 29118210 29238133
               29108082 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH