Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1290

   Mesoscale Discussion 1290
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0311 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

   Areas affected...western Kansas into the Panhandles and northwest
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386...

   Valid 240811Z - 241115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Potential for localized severe hail or wind gusts exists
   into western Kansas, and extending southeast of the existing watch
   into the northeast Texas Panhandle and far northwest Oklahoma.
   Additional watches are not anticipated at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Outflow associated with earlier severe storms over
   eastern CO is now pushing into southwest KS, and is intersecting a
   northwest to southeast oriented line of elevated storms in a zone of
   theta-e advection associated with southerly 850 mb winds. VWPs from
   AMA to GLD indicate around 15-20 kt out of the south to southeast.

   The primary instability axis stretches from southeast CO into
   northwest OK, and while SBCIN is increasing, elevated instability
   should continue to support areas of new development. New storm cores
   may produce hail briefly, and locally damaging gusts may still
   occur. 

   At this time it appears the cold pool from southeast CO into
   southwest KS may not be sufficient for significant upscale MCS
   growth. However, there is non-zero potential, and the area
   south/southeast of WW 386 will continue to be monitored this
   morning.

   ..Jewell.. 06/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37190264 37810231 38590231 38940246 39200239 39200175
               39010092 38680012 38089928 37729891 37089884 36409908
               35839976 35770030 35930119 36420154 36840204 37190264 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN