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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1288

Mesoscale Discussion 1288
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1288
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

   Areas affected...northeast ND into far northwest MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423...

   Valid 160757Z - 160930Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms will continue shifting east through
   early morning.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms will continue tracking east near 40
   mph the next couple of hours, taking convection across northeast ND
   into far northwest MN. Measured gusts the past hour or so have
   typically been less than 50 kt. A southerly 850 mb low-level jet
   around 25-30 kt ahead of convection, coupled with sufficient
   instability and deep-layer shear, will maintain organized convection
   for at least another couple of hours. Instability rapidly wanes with
   eastward extent into MN as low-level moisture decreases, and storms
   should weaken as they enter northwest MN. Locally strong/isolated
   severe gusts of 45-60 mph will remain possible in the short term
   across northeast ND. A downstream watch and/or aerial watch
   extension is not expected.

   ..Leitman.. 06/16/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   49099846 49049645 48569627 48089675 47789759 47589878
               47679972 47989998 48679951 49079933 49099846 

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