Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1286

   Mesoscale Discussion 1286
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0723 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the ArkLaTex

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384...

   Valid 240023Z - 240200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe risk will gradually diminish over the next
   couple of hours, but isolated damaging/severe wind gusts remain
   possible in the meantime. Downstream watch issuance is not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...An organized convective cluster remains ongoing across
   the ArkLaTex downstream of a mid-level MCV as of 0020 UTC. MUCAPE of
   2000-3000+ J/kg, modest effective shear of 20-30 kts, and continued
   cold pool forcing should allow this cluster to continue to progress
   east-southeastward over the next several hours along the cool side
   of a surface cold front currently analyzed from northeast Texas
   southeastward into southern Louisiana. Gradual nocturnal low-level
   cooling/stabilization will yield a diminishing severe risk with time
   as thunderstorms become elevated, but isolated damaging/severe wind
   gusts remain possible over the next 1-2 hours while thunderstorms
   remain surface based. Downstream watch issuance is not anticipated
   at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31929366 31959411 32409489 32839534 33109548 33319545
               33679520 33919495 34049472 34039441 33909387 33509325
               33099294 32689287 32299306 31989357 31929366 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH