US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1286

   Mesoscale Discussion 1286
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1131 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

   Areas affected...northern ND

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 422...

   Valid 160431Z - 160600Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 422 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for 60-80 mph wind gusts, isolated hail, and
   possibly a tornado will spread quickly eastward into the early
   overnight. Downstream watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...A fast-moving MCS with a history of producing
   significant severe gusts is moving across northwest ND late this
   evening. This MCS remains quite well-organized, with evidence of a
   strong rear-inflow jet, and 2-hour pressure rises of greater than 6
   mb recently noted over northeast MT. Steep midlevel lapse rates,
   relatively rich low-level moisture, and favorable deep-layer shear
   will support maintenance of this MCS as it moves across northern ND
   into the early overnight hours. Wind gusts of 60-80 mph will
   continue to be the primary hazard, though favorable low-level
   shear/SRH (as noted on the KMIB VWP) could also support potential
   for a line-embedded tornado. 

   With some severe-wind risk expected to spread east of WW 422,
   eventual downstream watch issuance into parts of north-central and
   northeast ND is likely.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 06/16/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   48950316 49030196 49090061 49119857 48469795 47379850
               47220158 47250332 48240322 48950316 

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